What a Second Trump Presidency Means for Africa

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The US elections truly carry so much weight. Not so many countries have the capacity to influence foreign markets based on local politics.

But the US does.

And while we all think that no one man should have that much power, we cannot afford to underestimate what the outcomes of the US 2024 election mean for the global population, and especially Africa.

After all, we are African and Africa is our business.

At the time of writing this article, Donald Trump leads by 51.1% with 266 Electoral College votes. Kamala Harris follows closely at 47.3% with 219 Electoral College votes.

What exactly would a Democrat or Republican win mean for Africa?

This edition covers exactly that.

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Enjoy!

First of all, the level of efficiency and transparency in the US elections is such a thing of beauty. Africa could only aspire.

Second, the run up to these elections has been one of the most dramatic and vivid runs in US history — if I do say so myself.

And while both candidates put up a good fight, there can only be one winner.

And that winner has the power to influence outcomes globally.

In their campaigns, it became obvious that Africa was not top at the priority list for any of the candidates. There were certainly issues with much more weight that both candidates prioritized.

Trump: Isolationism, Deal Making, and Strategic Focus on Africa

By all accounts, Trump is a bonafide numbers guy (at least business wise).  And the markets absolutely love him.

For instance, Bitcoin just reached an all-time high after Trump, who is pro-crypto, took an early lead.

But when it comes to Africa, Trump’s second presidency is likely to adapt an isolationist approach to foreign policy.

Trump is more focused on fixing domestic issues than he is about a favorable foreign standing like Biden was.

He has been unequivocal about enforcing tougher immigration policies and initiating large scale deportation for undocumented immigrants- a good number of those being African.

Trump has also promised to pull the USA out of the Paris climate accord, and that will obviously have a ripple effect on climate policies globally.

But moneywise, Trump has been categorical in prioritizing benefits over governance in Africa. The Prosper Africa initiative that he founded encourages US companies to gain market access in Africa. Consequently, a second Trump presidency would mean more deal making while focusing on partnerships with quick and tangible returns.

Kamala Harris: A Democrat’s Approach to Africa

Based on the real-time reports, it is uncertain that Kamala Harris will be moving to the White House. And in the unlikely event that she wins, here is what Africa can expect as part of her presidency:

Kamala’s foreign policy isn’t as detailed, but her stance on abortion access and LGBTQI+ rights are an indication that she is all for an issue-based foreign policy. She is likely to push for more anticorruption efforts in Africa too if her record as attorney general is anything to go by.

If she wins, Kamala will likely continue the Biden investment plan that pledged a $55 billion investment in Africa.

They Don’t Care About Us

Regardless of who wins, Africans must remember that both individuals will be focused on safeguarding American interests on the continent.

It’s a three-horse race between the USA, Russia, and China.

China is currently Africa’s largest trade partner and has made significant efforts towards building infrastructure all over the continent.

Russia has strengthened military ties with many African governments, while U.S. troops have been kicked out of Niger and Chad.

Under Trump, the USA may likely go an aggressive countering of China’s and Russia’s threat of US interests in the continent.

The US will likely invest in telecom and energy as well as lock down supply chains for critical minerals in Africa used for green energy batteries used in electric vehicles and phones.

An end-to-end access to Africa’s critical minerals means that the USA has an upper hand in building the technologies of the future without jeopardizing America’s economy today.

US companies on the continent could expect streamlined processes and a push for better regulation under a second Trump administration—making it easier and faster to do business.

Africa’s Role in a Trump Presidency

The next technological age will heavily involve quantum computing, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, the climate crisis, space exploration and semiconductor manufacturing.

Whichever of the two candidates wins, their stances on the advancement and regulation on these areas will heavily impact the future of the global economy.

Under Trump, what we can expect for sure is that there will be better, less-stringent frameworks on AI regulation, which will hopefully have a trickle-down effect on AI innovations globally.

Crypto bros are about to eat real good when Trump wins, and we might see more stable coins gain popularity.

Semiconductor manufacturing in America under Trump will shape global economics— with Africa being a key player in the supply chain process. I say Trump, because he has strongly spoken about manufacturing as a means to reclaiming America’s strong economic position.

Why This Is Our Business

Whichever candidate wins though, we cannot understate the direct implications on the African people.

Trump’s stricter immigration policies may be unpopular, but they may motivate more Africans to work in Africans to work on making this continent better.

If he wins, his nonchalant approach to African politics may mean less funding for African projects. And maybe this is a good thing since those donations only benefit a few individuals in the political class.

US military stances on the continent are already becoming unpopular, and Trump’s lack of interest in internationalism may influence the perceptions on the continent.

Him staying out of Africa’s business may challenge Africans to redefine democracy on their own terms—without overreliance on foreign influence.

And it goes without saying that if more American companies set up shop here, that will mean more jobs for locals—especially under the unemployment crisis.

And if Kamala wins, it will mean a greater push for human rights­— at a time when human rights abuse by African leaders is at all an time high.

I doubt that issues like reproductive rights and LGBTGIA issues in Africa will change under any of the candidates. This is more of a we problem.

It is critical to recognize that Africa’s future does not hinge entirely on Washington. Both candidates’ policies will inevitably impact Africa, but the continent’s leaders must take proactive steps toward self-reliance and diversification of partnerships.

Regardless of who wins the 2024 US presidential election, African countries must maintain an independent trajectory while leveraging opportunities for collaboration with both the US and other global powers.

Leaders should focus on strengthening domestic industries, reducing dependency on foreign aid, and advocating for policies that serve the continent’s long-term interests rather than short-term gains.

Africa must not wait for a savior from outside but instead build on the foundation of its people’s ingenuity and resourcefulness. Because whether the US adopts a more interventionist role under Harris or an isolationist one under Trump, the future of Africa lies in its ability to rise, chart its own course, and stand as a beacon of self-determination on the global stage.

I’d love to hear your thoughts on today’s edition. Did it make you happy or did it piss you off?

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